The eBook Revolution: The Future of Reading Will Be Digital

by David Kubicek

Will We Still Have Paper Books in the Year 2119?

I believe that an eBook revolution is coming, that the future of reading will be digital. Citizens of that world 100 years from now will know what a paper book is. Convenience and cost for publishers and readers will eventually make digital books rule and physical books obsolete, relics to be found only in antique shops.

But all modern books by then will be digital–that is, if books haven’t morphed into some totally alien form of communication that we can’t possibly envision today [science fiction writers in the 1950s and ’60s completely missed the digital revolution].

This isn’t a popular idea. When I suggested it in a blog post several years ago, I got some comments from readers who proclaimed that physical books would never disappear. Just this week the issue was the subject of a  Twitter thread where the initiating writer didn’t believe that digital would ever replace paper.

There is a saying that only two things in life are certain: death and taxes. I would add a third thing: change. As technology evolves, so does society.

Cost and Convenience Drive Change

Here are two examples.

Cost: In the early Twentieth Century no one thought motorcars would ever amount to more than playthings for the wealthy because of their cost. Then Henry Ford adapted the assembly line to auto production, which reduced the cost to a point where the working class could afford automobiles. Convenience: You can go farther and faster in a car than in a stage coach, and you don’t have to change to a fresh car every 20 miles.

Convenience: The general store where the clerk would collect the items on your list evolved into the self-service grocery store which evolved into the big box one-stop store where you can buy groceries, shoes, clothing, linens, household appliances, get your hair styled, do the banking, get an eye exam and even have your car serviced while you shop.

Why I Believe Digital Books Will Replace Paper

Convenience: You can carry around an entire library of digital books in a thin device the size of a trade paperback book.

Convenience: Digital books will not wear out–their bindings won’t crack, and their pages won’t get yellow and brittle with age.

Cost: Publishers won’t  have to spend money on paper, printing, warehousing and shipping.

Cost and Convenience: Publishers will be able to keep titles with modest sales in circulation longer because no longer will they take up valuable warehouse space–this will be a boon to both authors and publishers–and they won’t have to compete for shelf space in bookstores (which likely will have gone exclusively to a digital book model).

The eBook Revolution

The Kindle reader was released in 2007, and within 10 years e-books made up 17% of the market, while paperbacks accounted for 34.3% and hardcovers for 35.7%. When you look at the chart showing book sales over the past decade it may seem as if the e-book market is shrinking, but Brady Dale explains why it may only appear that way. 

The bottom line is, I believe convenience and cost for publishers and readers will eventually make digital books king and physical books obsolete, and the reading experience 100 years from now will be quite different than it is today.

What do you think?

For more information about David Kubicek’s books click here.

Education is a Life Long Commitment

by David Kubicek

“You don’t have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.” – Ray Bradbury

Contrary to popular belief, having a college degree does not mean you’re educated. A degree is only the beginning of your education, the first tiny step. Education is a lifelong commitment. This is true for everyone but is especially true for writers.

Fortunately, I discovered this when I was in college. About midway through my course of study I took a good look at what I was learning. I was reading lots of books, writing lots of papers, and taking lots of tests. But what I really wanted to learn was how to analyze data and reach conclusions. I wanted to learning how to think. And the curriculum wasn’t helping me accomplish that goal.

I enrolled in the honors program, and under the supervision of a professor in the English Department, I undertook a research project which culminated in a thesis entitled Ray Bradbury: Space Age Visionary. I re-read all of Bradbury’s early work, analyzed it, and drew my own conclusions about it. The project was a good exercise in thinking for myself.

But even the thesis is only a beginning. I consciously made the decision not to pursue a graduate degree because I believed it would hamper my learning. Getting a degree is fine if you want to go into a particular line of work, like teaching, engineering, or business, etc. But you don’t need a degree to be a writer – the subject of my thesis, Ray Bradbury, only graduated from high school.

To be a writer you need a curiosity about everything, a hunger to learn how the world works, and a drive to understand people and why they do the things they do. You satiate this hunger by absorbing everything you can, soaking up information like a sponge. Read on a variety of topics, listen to a variety of music, watch films and TV, have new experiences, meet a variety of people, get out of your comfort zone once in a while.

There is an old Chinese parable about obtaining enlightenment – Imagine a palace with a beautiful courtyard. A young man peers through a tiny hole in the door, but he can’t see the whole courtyard at once. In middle-age he looks out on the courtyard through a small window; although he can see more, his view is still hampered. But as an old man he has thrown open the door and stands on the balcony where he can see the entire courtyard and beyond.

This illustrates the learning process throughout our lives; as we expand our horizons, the view becomes more clear.

To paraphrase Bradbury, stuff yourself with everything. The key is to continue to grow for the rest of your life by doing all the things I mentioned a couple of paragraphs ago. Don’t become stuck in time; continue to evolve. For writers, you can’t write about life thoroughly unless you strive to understand it – you never will understand it completely, but the important thing is that you continue to expand your world. For everyone else, the non-writers, you need to keep expanding your world or your world will become a cramped, cold place.

To understand our world and to change it for the better we must remember that a formal institution of learning cannot give us an education. Teachers and mentors can point the way, but ultimately we are all responsible for what we learn, and our education is a life-long commitment.

For more information about David Kubicek’s books click here.